Extreme Weather Special Section
Weather Wild Card: El Niño 2026
The global phenomenon is expected to push temperatures higher during peak roofing season, creating potential opportunities for contractors at the ready.
One unknown factor that could influence the extreme weather forecast for North America – and just how busy roofing contractors will be this season -- is the El Niño effect.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), experts predict a 60% chance of an El Niño weather pattern developing around North America by late summer and could last through the end of the year. El Niño patterns create volatile weather when the jet stream is supported by heat coming from the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds.
On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.
This season, forecasters said to:
- Expect increased disruptive wind shear and reduced storm activity, especially later in the season.
- A 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season, which could mean even less activity in the Atlantic. These are strong weather events spurred by rising sea temperatures above average. They are rare, only occurring every 10–20 years, and bring with them long-lasting moisture that often leads to extreme heat and heavy flooding.
Stoking the predictions are facts like the West and Southwest regions of the country experienced their warmest winters on record, according to NOAA. The northeast Pacific reached its highest ever average temperature, about 69 degrees, in September, and marine heat waves continued through the winter and into the spring. In March, ocean waters along parts of the West coast were roughly 3 to 4 degrees above normal based on NOAA's latest sea surface temperature measurements.
Satellite data shows sea surface temperatures rose sharply in April in the central and eastern Pacific.
To track it all, AccuWeather announced its weather data is now available through an app integrated into ChatGPT, a move that could affect how roofing contractors access forecasts on the jobsite.
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