Extreme weather events are already keeping roofing contractors busy around the country — whether it’s monster hail in the Midwest, early-season activity in Tornado Alley or record rains in California and Hawaii.

And that’s just the start, according to the forecasters at AccuWeather.

The national meteorological service announced this week that it predicts 11-16 named storms to develop along the Atlantic Coast this coming hurricane season, which officially begins June 1. Roughly three to five of those storms are expected to make direct impacts on the U.S. before the season ends in the fall.

That still falls below what the experts consider near-to below-historical levels for the Atlantic, but preparedness is key, officials cautioned.

"It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a news release. "Even if it's expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."

AccuWeather considers a direct landfall, a storm passing within 60 miles of the coast, tropical-storm-force winds on land, flooding from a tropical system, or more than 2 feet of storm surge as a direct U.S. impact.

Areas with higher risk than the historical average include the central and eastern Gulf Coast states, as well as both Carolinas and the Virginia coast, according to the forecast.

The predictions are not that far off from last year’s, which may give some roofing contractors pause. In March 2025, AccuWeather forecasted 13-18 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, half of which were expected to be Category 3 or higher. By September, following an unexpected lull in hurricane storm activity, it downgraded its forecast to roughly six major storms.

There were two direct impacts on the U.S. overall, and neither were considered hurricanes. Tropical Storm Chantal caused an estimated $6 billion in total damage and economic loss, following damaging flooding in North Carolina over the Independence Day holiday weekend. Hurricane Erin brought rough surf, beach erosion and deadly rip currents to the U.S. East Coast in August.

Wild Card

One unknown factor that could influence the forecast – and just how busy roofing contractors will be this season is the El Niño effect.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), experts predict a 60% chance of an El Niño weather pattern developing around North America by late summer and could last through the end of the year. El Niño patterns create volatile weather when the jet stream is supported by heat coming from the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds.

On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes. 

This season, forecasters said to

• Expect increased disruptive wind shear and reduced storm activity, especially later in the season. 

• A 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season, which could mean even less activity in the Atlantic. 

Following the first hurricane season in a decade without a U.S. hurricane landfall, AccuWeather experts warn that the risk of direct U.S. impacts is elevated this year. Even with fewer storms expected overall, there is potential for multiple direct U.S. impacts this season, including early-season or even pre-season development. 

“There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,” DaSilva said. “Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”