The latest data from the Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association (ARMA) shows asphalt product shipments in the third quarter are down in all tracked categories compared to the previous quarter.
In the association’s Quarterly Product Shipment Report for the third quarter of 2022, shipments of shingles, BUR and modified bitumen decreased, in most cases by double digits. This follows in a trend seen last year, where shipments were all down in Q3 2021. It’s a stark contrast to the third quarter of 2020, where all products saw increases in shipments.
Here’s a breakdown of how Q3 2022 shipments stack up to Q2 2022 (reported in squares):
- U.S. Shingles: 39.4 million, down 13.3%
- BUR Base, Ply and Mineral Sheet Caps: 1.8 million, down 9.9%
- Modified Bitumen: 9.6 million, down 15.6%
- Canada Shingles: 3 million, down 21.1%
The data points to supply chain issues that have yet to resolve in the U.S. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, the initial supply issues caused by pandemic, and the effects of last year's storm season are further worsened by rampant inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows prices in September hit another 40-year high. In the construction industry, input prices are up 16.3% from a year ago and nonresidential construction input prices are up by 15.9%.
“Investors and other stakeholders are eagerly awaiting any indications of meaningful declines in inflationary pressures,” said Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Elevated inflation and interest rate increases have not only undone momentum in America’s homebuilding industry but also threaten the entire global economy. There are already indications of growing financial stress, including at banking giant Credit Suisse. This is bad news for the heavily financed real estate and construction segments.”
The asphalt shipment numbers don’t fare much better when comparing Q3 2022 to the same time last year, with only BUR seeing any increases.
- U.S. Shingles: Down 6.2%
- BUR Base, Ply and Mineral Sheet Caps: Up 11.3%
- Modified Bitumen: Down 7.6%
- Canada Shingles: Down 7.4%
Supply issues aren’t going to go away anytime soon. Much like Hurricane Ida did in 2021, the roofing supply industry is likely to see an impact on the supply chain due to Hurricane Ian, which is estimated to have caused $63 to $75 billion in property damages.
“As far a supply issues go, (manufacturers are) going to run out, everybody is going to run out at some point, but I think they’re being really proactive right now in getting the materials down to where they need to be,” said Jonathan Dorosh, CEO of Nationwide Construction Ventures in Orlando, Fla.
Roofing product shipment data is collected from participating manufacturers by an independent third party, Association Research Inc., and aggregated to create ARMA's report.