According to the latest report from the Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association, shipments of asphalt roofing products dropped overall in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter.

The association’s Quarterly Product Shipment Report, which tracks the shipment of shingles, BUR and modified bitumen, shows that domestic shingle shipments dropped by 4% to 44.8 million squares compared to Q3 2024. Canadian shingle shipments fell by nearly 22% to 2.3 million.

Meanwhile, BUR product shipments are down by 9.9%, with 1.2 million squares. Modified bitumen shipment fell 6.3% from the previous quarter to 11.9 million.

These overall drops, however, follow a trend. Looking back at previous report data, Q3 shipments have decreased for every product category since 2017, with the only exception being overall increases seen between Q2 2020 and Q3 2020.

Despite these drops, there are bright spots. The amount of modified bitumen shipped is the highest on record for Q3 at 11.9 million squares, beating out Q3 2023’s total of 11.3 million. Also noteworthy is the reduction in domestic shingle shipments, the lowest Q2 to Q3 drop in the report’s history, with most quarters seeing double-digit percentage declines.

A Good Year for Mod Bit, Shingles

Examining the numbers year by year yields more positive outlooks. Comparing Q3 2024 to the same time last year shows modified bitumen shipments are up 5.2% at 35.4 million. This is the largest Q3 year-to-date shipment in the report’s history.

Canadian shingle shipments are much higher this quarter, clocking in at 2.3 million, up a massive 25.7% compared to Q3 2023. Domestic shingles ticked down 1.8% during the same period, with the report tracking it at 44.8 million. BUR shipments decreased by 14.5% to 1.2 million.

Overall, year-to-date shipment totals are looking positive. Domestic shingle shipments are overall higher by 2.6% at 134.6 million squares compared to 2023, the largest Q3 year-to-date shipment on record. Q3 2024 Canadian shingle shipments are up 4.9% from last year at 8 million.

BUR is the only product experiencing an overall decrease, falling by 17.8% to 3.8 million compared to Q3 2023. This is the lowest Q3 year-to-date total on record for BUR.

ARMA’s roofing product shipment data is collected from participating manufacturers by an independent third party, Association Research Inc., and aggregated to create its reports.

Economic Analysis

The latest economic outlooks from Associated Builders and Contractors point toward a few factors influencing construction pricing and products.

According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, construction input prices decreased by 0.9% in September compared to the previous month, and non-residential construction input prices also decreased by 0.9% in that same period.

“The decline in construction input costs observed in September was almost entirely due to a large decrease in oil prices,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Certain materials, like gypsum, fabricated structural-metal products, asphalt and lumber exhibited sizable price increases for the month.”

He noted that domestic freight rates are low by historical standards, but elevated global container-shipping rates and supply chain uses could lead to increases in material pricing in the coming months. The dockworker strike at the beginning of October comes to mind, with similar actions taking place at the Port of Montreal.

Employment is also on the rise, with the construction industry adding 25,000 jobs on net in September, a 3% increase year over year. The nonresidential specialty trade added the most jobs, increasing by 17,000 positions.

The construction unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in September, though unemployment across all industries shrank from 4.2% in August to 4.1% last month.

“The construction industry added jobs for the fifth consecutive month despite labor shortages,” Basu said. “The industry unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in September, but that’s still lower than in any month on record before the second half of 2018 and half a percentage point below the economy-wide unemployment rate.”

Basu said the latest jobs report “blew past expectations” and that the ongoing strength of the labor market and consumer spending indicates the economy has thus far weathered higher interest rates than most expected. However, he cautions against celebrating prematurely.

“The combination of rising household debt levels and economic uncertainty surrounding geopolitics and the looming election will potentially weigh on growth in the coming months,” he said.