Winter Weather Forecast
What's the Winter Weather Forecast for Roofers?
The experts say a record El Niño will impact winter weather across the country.
Weather forecasters may have oversold the impact of storm season for roofing contractors early on in 2026, but anyone putting further trust in future weather predictions should get prepared.
Meteorologists around the world predict a record-setting El Niño weather pattern will bring more rain from California across the Gulf Coast this winter. Farther north, warmer-than-average conditions are common, with fewer intrusions of Arctic air, according to the AccuWeather forecast.
The snow season is expected to get off to an early start from the Sierra Nevada through the Great Basin and into the central and southern Rockies. A shift in the storm track will also bring opportunities for snow across the Plains in January and February. The Northwest may see a less consistent pattern, with periods of snow interrupted by extended stretches of dry weather as the main Pacific storm track frequently focuses farther south.
Below-average seasonal snowfall does not rule out a major snowstorm in the East. The Northeast could still experience a significant storm during the middle or latter part of winter, which could boost seasonal snowfall totals.
“While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities," AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok warned in a press release. "That is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February.”
Roofers who think they’ve been through this before may be in for a surprise, experts said. This season’s El Niño could be the most intense ever because of several circumstances already underway.
El Niño develops when water temperatures around the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean grow warmer than average. The resulting atmospheric changes could push global temperatures to historic levels next year. For winter weather patterns, experts said roofers should watch for the following by region.
- Upper Midwest/Great Lakes: Get ready for warmer temperatures up north. December is projected to start unusually mild across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest), limiting early-season lake-effect snow and driving overall seasonal temperatures above normal.
- South & West: An active, southern-shifted storm track is expected to bring heavy precipitation and mountain snow to California, the Sierra Nevada, the central/southern Rockies, and the Four Corners region.
- Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic: Get ready for severe weather risks. The southern states face an increased risk of stormy, wet weather and potential severe thunderstorms or tornado outbreaks.
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