Demand for asphalt in China is forecast to rise 6.8 percent per annum through 2008 to 15 million metric tons. The Chinese asphalt market will experience the fastest growth among major economies in the world, driven by strong gains in road construction activity as well as healthy advances in building construction. These and other trends are presented in Asphalt in China, a new study from The Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland-based market research firm.
Asphalt demand in paving applications will outperform roofing, rising 8.1 percent per year to 11.3 million metric tons in 2008, and accounting for three-quarters of overall demand in China. Market gains will be primarily driven by strong increases in road construction activity. Asphalt has surpassed concrete in road construction and will continue to account for the majority of road paving in China.
Demand for asphalt in the roofing segment will moderate to a below-average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent through 2008, despite a strong building construction market. Asphalt shingles and modified bitumen membranes will continue their inroads in the Chinese roofing market. Demand for built-up and asphalt roll roofing will continue its downward trajectory, constraining stronger market gains for roofing asphalt. While BUR and roll roofing have dominated low-slope roof construction in China historically, steep-slope roofing applications are increasingly being adopted by new residential constructions, thereby reducing demand for BUR and asphalt roll roofing.
In addition, under China's "Flat to Slope Conversion Project," existing flat roofs, especially in the residential market segment, are being replaced with steep-slope roofs, which will reduce the existing BUR and roll roofing stock. This reduction in stock will negatively impact BUR and roll roofing maintenance and repair expenditures in the future. Within the low-slope roofing product category, BUR and asphalt roll roofing are also losing market share to such products as thermoplastic membranes, further dampening growth prospects for asphalt demand.
Asphalt in China (published in March 2005, 222 pages) is available for $4,800 from The Freedonia Group Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, OH 44143 -2326. For further details, please contact Corinne Gangloff at 440-684-9600 or
firstname.lastname@example.org, or visit www.freedoniagroup.com.