U.S. property insurance premiums are projected to reach $546.2 billion by 2030, up from $432.9 billion in 2026, as insurers continue to adjust to catastrophe losses, inflation and rising reinsurance costs, according to GlobalData.

The forecast reflects a compound annual growth rate of 6%, with premiums expected to rise 8.2% in 2026 as carriers respond to elevated loss costs and ongoing climate-related risks.

Losses from natural disasters remain a key driver. Global insured catastrophe losses reached about $108 billion in 2025, marking another year above $100 billion, according to Munich Re, underscoring what many insurers now view as a sustained loss environment.

“Premium dynamics will continue to reflect the frequent occurrence of severe weather events, an upward trend in materials and labor costs, [and] increasing reinsurance cost,” said Swarup Kumar Sahoo, senior insurance analyst at GlobalData.

Rising claims severity is adding further pressure. Property claim severity increased 9% from 2023 to 2024, the highest level in seven years, according to LexisNexis Risk Solutions.

Homeowners insurance remains the largest segment, accounting for nearly half of total property premiums. Rates are expected to continue increasing, particularly in wildfire- and storm-prone states, as insurers reprice for risk.

“While premium growth in 2025–26 is expected to moderate from prior peaks, pricing remains upwardly biased,” Sahoo said.

Affordability is an increasing concern for homeowners. Insurance costs are taking up a growing share of monthly housing payments, contributing to financial strain, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Market strain is most evident in high-risk states such as Florida and California, where some insurers have reduced exposure, limited new business or withdrawn altogether, pushing more homeowners into state-backed insurance programs.

At the same time, insurers are expanding their use of reinsurance and alternative capital to manage volatility. Catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities, including those tied to wildfire risk, are playing a larger role in supporting capacity.

Carriers are also investing in digital tools and artificial intelligence to improve underwriting and claims management. Technologies such as AI-enabled inspections and advanced weather modeling are helping refine risk selection and pricing.

Growth opportunities are emerging in specialty segments, including coverage for data centers tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, as demand increases for large, complex risk protection.

GlobalData said the market is shifting from a period of rapid repricing to more disciplined growth, as insurers balance risk, affordability and capacity in an increasingly volatile environment.