The results of the 2024 presidential election will have a myriad of effects on the roofing industry with an incoming administration that is both business-friendly and tough on border security and immigration.

Political and government experts with the National Roofing Contractors Association dove into the potential impacts of the election in an hour-long webinar on Tuesday, touching on everything from political implications to policy changes.

Election Results

Former President Donald Trump won his re-election bid, becoming the second president in history to win non-consecutive terms. Joining him is Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance, who NRCA officials said has supported multiple pieces of legislation benefitting the industry, including co-sponsoring the Main Street Tax Certainty Act. Officials indicated they are pleased with Trump’s announced Cabinet picks as well.

“We’re following all the Cabinet nominations,” said Deb Mazol, NRCA’s director of federal affairs. “A lot of good, familiar faces within those ranks and a lot of folks that are either close to the industry or will be pretty good for the industry.”

In the Senate, the majority has swung 53 to 47 for Republicans. It’s worth noting that most legislation needs 60 votes to overcome filibusters, so there will need to be bipartisan efforts to pass most bills. There are some exemptions, however, such as with tax and some spending legislation, that only require 51 votes, as well as some regulatory actions.

In the House of Representatives, things are less clear. Sources vary on the exact details but Republicans are expected to maintain control of the chamber by a close margin at 221 to 214. This is complicated by Trump’s cabinet appointments that removed three Republican representatives, which could make maintaining the majority difficult.

“Obviously, everyone has a different perspective, a different experience, a different philosophy, so that gets really tricky. Just because they are a Republican or a Democrat doesn’t necessarily mean they will all vote together,” said Mazol.

Regulations

Duane Musser, the NRCA’s vice president of government relations, noted that Congress can repeal certain federal regulations through the Congressional Review Act with a majority vote in the House if the regulation was issued within the last 60 legislative days. In addition, the Chevron case that occurred earlier this year with the Supreme Court is expected to aid with court challenges to regulations.

One example is the recent heat illness rulemaking that OSHA is currently undertaking. NRCA officials called it “very, very prescriptive” and plan to submit comments in response to the regulations that are due by the end of the year. It’s unlikely the Biden administration will finalize the rule, but if it were, it could potentially be repealed by Congress.

OSHA also issued a worksite inspection regulation in May, meaning it wouldn’t fall within the timeframe to be repealed, Musser said there is litigation being undertaken with this regulation and the Chevron case could provide an avenue for the rule being overturned. The same can be said for the independent contractor rule that deals with classifying workers as contractors or employees.

Immigration

The NRCA is anticipating an overall increase in border security efforts from Congress as well as multiple executive actions once Trump takes office regarding immigration, including increased workplace enforcement visits and audits of I-9s.

Along with pushing for maximizing the efficiencies of H-2B visas, the NRCA is supporting the Essential Workers for Economic Advancement Act. This would establish a new three-year, year-round H-2C visa system.

“It’s like H-2B but not at all seasonal,” Musser said. “It will provide for increased legal immigration for workforce.”

The NRCA has also pushed for granting permanent legal status for individuals in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program or those in the country legally under the Temporary Protected Status.

These, however, might be at odds with Trump’s campaign promises of mass deportation. Musser said during their conversations with people close to the matter, these efforts would focus on undocumented individuals and primarily those with criminal records, gang activity and individuals who arrived in the last five years.

“We’re going to need to see specifics on that, and to the extent it impacts our industry, we will be working with our allies to address those issues,” he said.

Musser said the NRCA is “concerned” Trump will terminate TPS designations and those in the DACA program, similar to his attempts in his first term. However, those efforts have previously been blocked by court rulings.

Economic Outlook

The NRCA officials say the coming year will heavily focus on tax reform. This is mainly due to most of the 2017 tax law provisions expiring at the end of 2025, like the 20% pass-through income deduction that affects S-corps and LLCs going away completely.

“We want to make sure we keep that 20% deduction in place past 2025,” she said. “About 75% of NRCA members are pass-through industry, and generally that’s what the roofing industry writ large.”

Trump has made it clear he wants to focus on extending or preserving most of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while proposing ideas like lower corporate rates (18% from 21%) and exempting overtime pay from income tax. Mazol said the government will need to figure out a way to make tax reform revenue-neutral.

“This Republican party, probably due to the debt that we’re in and how high it’s getting, there has been a lot more bipartisan calls to try to offset these, so either pull back on spending, figure out a way to grow the economy, figure out creative ways to make other people pay for our spending like tariffs,” she said.

On the issue of tariffs, Trump has proposed a 10% universal tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. NRCA advised the roofing industry to take Trump at his word on putting these tariffs in place. If approved, the 10% tariff would apply to more than $3.8 trillion in annual U.S. imports.

“If you can make a case for an exemption I would consider that route,” Mazol said as advice to business owners. “I would consider moving from an inventory right now perspective overall … to maybe ensure your business is insulated from those changes.”

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that Trump's tariffs would cost the average U.S. household about $2,600 per year. Items like clothing, electronics and toys are among those that are likely to be affected.

The NRCA also touched on the new Department of Government Efficiency led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Mazol said they’re tasked with finding wasteful spending or efficiencies in existing programs, though Congress does constitutionally hold “the power of the purse.”

Workforce Issues

As in the past, most notably during Roofing Day events in D.C., the NRCA will continue seeking support for bills that would bolster the workforce, including the bipartisan Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act to reform training programs.

The NRCA will continue to push for increased funding in the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act, which supports career and technical education programs for students and adults through state grants.

Lame Duck

As the current administration winds down, some industry-related issues could still take place before 2025. One is reforming the Workforce Innovation Opportunity Act, which governs workforce training programs. Musser said the reforms aim to streamline paperwork burdens and target resources to worker training versus other career service items. Legislation was introduced roughly a year ago to effect these changes.

“This is a good example of, despite the polarization that we’ve seen in politics with Republicans and Democrats not being able to get together, this is an area where they’ve heard from us and some allied groups and they really worked to get a bipartisan bill to get some good reforms in it,” he said.

He said if the legislation doesn’t go through in the lame duck session, it will be a priority for the NRCA in 2025 to have it re-introduced, and he expressed confidence in getting it passed due to strong support from both sides of the aisle.