The Home Improvement Research Institute, the nation’s leading nonprofit resource for market research concerning the home and building products industry, forecasted that the roofing and supplies industry will experience compound annual growth over the next four years.
According to its latest forecast, the U.S. building products market will continue building on exponential growth seen in 2020 and 2021. The total market will grow by an additional 2.9% from 2023 through 2025, with the consumer market growing by 2.3% and the professional market growing by 4.6%. This research was conducted in partnership with IHS Markit and released to HIRI members at the end of Q3 in the biannual Home Improvement Products Market Forecast.
“The home improvement industry had explosive growth during the coronavirus pandemic due primarily to DIY projects, but that may now be driven by pros,” said HIRI Research Director Matthew Craig. “We are glad to now provide the home and building industry some insight into what they can expect as we continue to navigate a post-pandemic world.”
Among the top industries expected to grow from 2021 to 2025 is the professional roofing and supplies market, which is expected to have a compound annual growth rate of 8.2%. These findings indicate a curtailment of DIY growth as an overall share of home improvement product sales in 2022, as many homeowners completed planned projects throughout this year and the last. However, growth will continue further in the professional products market as COVID-19 restrictions ease and projects once on hold resume. This means demand for certain products will continue to increase in areas where contractor-led projects are high.
“The strong home improvement outlook provided by pandemic behavior has been given new life by this year’s improved employment gains, increased access to vaccinations and additional stimulus measures. All have boosted consumer confidence and the housing market in particular,” said IHS Markit Managing Director Scott Hazelton. “While the boom cannot last forever, a continuing strong economy suggests spending by contractors will actually improve year-over-year as households feel more comfortable with contractors in their home.”
Other top growing merchandise lines include siding and exterior trim (11%), gypsum and specialty boards (9.5%), dimensional lumber and boards (8.4%), doors and molding (8%), kitchen and bath (7.9%) and major household appliances (7.9%).
The findings also forecast the compound annual growth rate in home improvement spending by state and region. The following states are considered the fastest growing markets from 2021 to 2025:
- Oklahoma: 8.9%
- California: 8.7%
- New Mexico: 8.6%
- Nevada: 8.5%
- Texas: 8.5%
- Massachusetts: 8.4%
- Louisiana: 8.3%
- Kentucky: 8.3%
- South Carolina: 8.3%
- Georgia: 8.3%
In the short term, the forecast predicts the total building products market to grow by 13% in 2021, with the consumer market growing by 10.8% and the professional market growing by 18.2%. In 2022, the total building products market is forecasted to grow by an additional 2.3%, with the consumer market growing by 0.2% and the professional market growing by 7.1%.