Housing Insights

New Data Reframes U.S. Housing Shortage

Shift may affect roofing growth plans

By Tanja Kern, Senior Strategic Content Editor

construction worker framing a building — Photo by Josh Olalde on Unsplash

The U.S. housing shortage might not be as large as many in the industry thought, which could affect how roofing contractors plan for growth.

A recent blog post, "The U.S. Housing Shortage is Smaller Than Commonly Claimed," written by Lilli Tillman Smith, industry analyst at Principia Consulting, and Eric Gaus, Chief Economist at Dodge Construction Network, examines how this new view affects labor planning, material procurement, and equipment investment.

According to Dodge Construction Network, the housing shortage peaked in mid-2022 at about 2 to 3 million units. Since then, it has dropped to around 1 to 1.5 million units, based on vacancy rates.

Affordability remains a problem, but it is mostly due to high financing costs, construction expenses, and land-use rules, not just a lack of available homes. Vacancy rates for both rentals and owned homes are starting to level out.

For roofing contractors, this means demand will likely come more from remodeling, replacement work, and local trends than from a surge in new construction.

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Tanja Kern covers economic trends and the intersection of architecture, design, and construction for Roofing Contractor, with an emphasis on the forces reshaping the industry. She develops and amplifies content that connects roofing professionals with the intelligence they need to compete and grow.

With more than 20 years of experience, Tanja has written for national business, consumer and trade publications. She holds a Master of Science in magazine publishing from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism.