Asphalt product shipments in the first quarter of 2025 remained relatively on par with previous years, though the effects of economic uncertainty may lead to sharper declines in the near future.

The first Quarterly Product Shipment Report for 2025 from the Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association shows Q1 shipments of domestic and Canadian shingles improved from Q4 of 2024 while BUR and modified bitumen shipments declined.

Meanwhile, examining Q1 2025 shipments compared to Q1 2024 shows most products declined, potentially indicating a weaker start to the year.

The following were the increases and decreases from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, presented in squares shipped:

• Shingles: 42.3 million, up 12.8%
• BUR: 1 million, down 0.5%
• Modified Bitumen: 8.7 million, down 10.7%
• Canadian Shingles: 3.7 million, up 144.2%

According to an analysis of ARMA’s reports, which date back to 2018, all product categories typically trend upwards when comparing the first quarter of each year to the previous quarter.

On average, domestic shingle shipments rise 15.2% during this period. Using updated Q4 2024 numbers, this year’s 12.8% is just under the average and lower than previous years, like the 16% increase from 2021 to 2022.

Canadian shingles experience a major surge in shipments from Q4 to the next Q1, seeing an average increase of 122.6%. As impressive as it is to have a 144.2% increase in shipments this year, it’s the third-highest on record, behind 2018 to 2019 (217.5%) and 2019 to 2020 (196.6%).

Modified bitumen shipments declined 10.7% from the previous quarter. Since 2020, they have seen increases for an average of 2.1%. This year’s Q1 shipment is the lowest Q1 on record in ARMA's reports.

BUR product shipments recovered from last quarter, only dropping by 0.5% compared to the 15.2% drop it experienced from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. On average, BUR shipments increase by 2.1% from Q4 to Q1 since 2018.

ARMA’s report does not include shipment information for Q1 2017 and 2018.

First Quarter Shipments

The numbers are less favorable when comparing Q1 2025 to Q1 2024. Except for Canadian shingles, shipments for every product type tracked by ARMA fell. They are as follows:

• Shingles: -1.7%
• BUR: -13.3%
• Modified Bitumen: -4.7%
• Canadian Shingles: 40.4%

Using ARMA’s updated numbers for 2024, on average, domestic shingles have risen by 3.6% since 2019 when comparing Q1 totals to previous years. Domestic shingles may have seen minimal decreases this year, but it’s a far cry from the 27.2% increase the category saw from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024.

Canadian shingles are again an outlier this year compared to previous Q1 shipments. The 40.4% increase in shipments compared to Q1 2024’s total is unprecedented in ARMA’s data. It’s also a major U-turn from last year, when Q1 2024 shipments were down 22.6% from Q1 2023.

Modified bitumen shipments on average increase by 3% from Q1 to Q1. This year’s shipments surpassed the average at 4.7%. The largest Q1 to Q1 increase for mod bit occurred from 2020 to 2021 with a 24.2% increase.

BUR experiences an average 7% decrease when comparing previous Q1s, meaning this year’s 13.3% decrease is concerning. Again, BUR shipments are at their lowest for Q1 in the report’s history.

Roofing product shipment data is collected from participating manufacturers by an independent third party, Association Research Inc., and aggregated to create ARMA's reports.

Economic Impacts

This year will be one to watch regarding shipment quantities. Much like how 2020 saw some of the lowest shipment totals on record due to the COVID pandemic, this year’s numbers could see similar shifts due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The comparison of COVID to the current state of the economy is not unwarranted. The Conference Board said on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points in April to 86, the lowest since the beginning of the COVID pandemic in May 2020.

“The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The three expectation components — business conditions, employment prospects, and future income — all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.”

The decline was sharpest among consumers between 35 and 55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year. It was shared across all political affiliations, according to the Conference Board.

Q1 of 2025 was mostly spared from major impacts from the tariffs, though March construction input prices increased 0.5%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Similarly, nonresidential construction input prices increased by 0.6% in the same period.

New tariff hikes directly affect metal roofing products versus asphalt-based products, though most manufacturers use oil from Canada to make shingles since American oil is too rich. As a result, most manufacturers will likely raise their prices to compensate despite the shingles being made in the U.S.

Canadian shingle shipments will be the most likely to drop in ARMA’s reports since Canadian manufacturers will have to deal with tariffs when exporting their products.

Given the current economic environment, companies are hesitant to make capital investments, which will also affect asphalt product shipments.

"Backlog increased in March and contractors remained optimistic regarding the future, but this largely reflects contractor activity and sentiment prior to April 2, when the most consequential economic policy in several decades was announced," said Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu.

Basu said about 80% of ABC contractors surveyed said suppliers notified them of tariff-related price increases, and about 20% of contractors had projects paused or interrupted because of tariffs in March.

It remains to be seen what effect the “Liberation Day” tariffs and their pause will have on pricing and projects in the coming months, though if recent consumer confidence numbers are any indication, it could mean a major slowdown for construction.